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achikule!
2 posts
mind of a Markov chain
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- August 5, 2010
- 06:52 PM
- 1,118 views
R and Google Earth ~ comparing tuna tracks vs. Gulf of Mexico oil spill extent
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
There is a lot of interest in how the Gulf of Mexico oil gusher will affect the ecosystem and its marine species. One such species is the Western Atlantic bluefin tuna that holds the Gulf of Mexico as one of its major spawning grounds. Recent tag data show that the location of the gusher is [...]... Read more »
Teo SL, & Block BA. (2010) Comparative influence of ocean conditions on yellowfin and atlantic bluefin tuna catch from longlines in the gulf of Mexico. PloS one, 5(5). PMID: 20526356
- July 9, 2010
- 09:35 PM
- 956 views
Log Normal Distributions in Ecology ~ multiplications complications
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
The normal distribution is the “norm” when applying statistics to data. It is simple to interpret, simple to predict, simple to optimize, convenient software-wise and analytically elegant. But in many applications, this modeling assumption may not be optimal. The first is that the normal distribution doesn’t have a zero bound. In ecology, the data is [...]... Read more »
LIMPERT, E., STAHEL, W., & ABBT, M. (2001) Log-normal Distributions across the Sciences: Keys and Clues. BioScience, 51(5), 341. DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0341:LNDATS]2.0.CO;2
- February 9, 2010
- 02:35 PM
- 909 views
Basing International CO2 reduction figures on Cumulative CO2
There is considerable deliberations on the international policy agreements on each countries’ magnitude of CO2 reductions to avert catastrophic consequences due to climate change. The main indicator for the allocations are based on the percentage reductions in emission rates relative to 1990. This has had a tendency to split international negotiations into developed and developing countries. The difficulty is due to four main factors with respect to each country: population levels, wealth, proportional damage due to climate change and past emission levels...... Read more »
Roe, G., & Baker, M. (2007) Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?. Science, 318(5850), 629-632. DOI: 10.1126/science.1144735
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Matthews, H., & Weaver, A. (2009) From the Cover: Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(38), 16129-16134. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0805800106
- January 30, 2010
- 11:00 AM
- 902 views
Dynamics of 2ch Discussions
The structure of online discussions are partially determined by its platform. Whether it is through blogs, BBS, chat, email and other online platforms, the depth, dynamicity, communicability, accountability, communability and the behavior of the discussions vary. As an easy example, the presence of anonymity limits the responsibility and accountability of the communicator — diluting the constructiveness of the thought into a more emotional one. Huffington Post utilizes a thumbs up/down system to establish credibility, while DailyKos lets users post there own diaries. The ability of the latter to...... Read more »
Matsumura, N., Miura, A., Shibanai, Y., Ohsawa, Y., & Nishida, T. (2004) The dynamism of 2channel. AI , 19(1), 84-92. DOI: 10.1007/s00146-004-0302-5
- July 5, 2010
- 01:44 PM
- 900 views
FAO Tuna Fisheries Catch Trends in the Pacific Ocean and the China Anomaly ~ EDA of one year differences
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
In 2001, Reg Watson and Daniel Pauly published a paper in Nature (“Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends”) that showed anomalous trends for China’s marine fisheries catch trends. They took fisheries catch data within various countries’ EEZs and saw the difference between the predicted catch and the observed catch. China apparently had catches exponentially [...]... Read more »
Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2001) Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends. Nature, 414(6863), 534-536. DOI: 10.1038/35107050
- July 18, 2010
- 12:07 AM
- 875 views
Cherry Picking to Generalize ~ retrospective meta-power analysis using Cohen’s f^2 of NASA temp visualization
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
Previously, I plotted a grid of NASA GISS global temps in ggplot2 to show general trends by the brute force method. Here, I will again use the brute force method to do a simple power analysis on a portion of the data (data here). The general aim is to figure out what the minimum sample [...]... Read more »
Thomas, L. (1997) Retrospective Power Analysis. Conservation Biology, 11(1), 276-280. DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.96102.x
- June 27, 2010
- 09:03 PM
- 790 views
Plot Multiple Time Series using the flow/inkblot/river/ribbon/volcano/hourglass/area/whatchamacallit plots ~ blue whale catch per country w/ ggplot2
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
Ever since I first looked at this NYT visualization by Amanda Cox, I’ve always wanted to reproduce this in R. This is a plot that stacks multiple time series onto one another, with the width of the river/ribbon/hourglass representing the strength at each time. The NYT article used box office revenue as the width of the river. It’s also an interactive web app. thanks to some help from graphic designers.... Read more »
Havre, S., Hetzler, E., Whitney, P., & Nowell, L. (2002) ThemeRiver: visualizing thematic changes in large document collections. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 8(1), 9-20. DOI: 10.1109/2945.981848
- August 26, 2010
- 03:35 AM
- 587 views
Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ now with CO2 forcing
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
Previously, I did a simple Bayesian projection of recent temperature using proxy data and the methods shown in McShane and Wyner (2010). I showed that when you take out the last 30 years of data (1969~1998), the projection does not track the recent uptick in temperatures well. The “projection” is a simple unparametric bootstrap which [...]... Read more »
BLAKELEY B. MCSHANE AND ABRAHAM J. WYNER. (2010) A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE PROXIES: ARE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 1000 YEARS RELIABLE?. Annals of Applied Statistics, 4(3). info:/
- August 22, 2010
- 04:10 AM
- 532 views
Global Temperature Proxy Reconstructions ~ Bayesian extrapolation of warming w/ rjags
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
There are a bunch of “hockey sticks” that calculate past global temps. through the use of proxies when instrumental data is absent. There is a new one out there by McShane and Wyner (2010) that’s creating quite a stir in the blogosphere (here, here, here, here). The main take out being, that the uncertainty is [...]... Read more »
BLAKELEY B. MCSHANE AND ABRAHAM J. WYNER. (2010) A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE PROXIES: ARE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 1000 YEARS RELIABLE?. Annals of Applied Statistics, 4(3). info:/
Mann, M., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M., Bradley, R., Miller, S., Rutherford, S., & Ni, F. (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(36), 13252-13257. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0805721105
- October 25, 2010
- 01:16 AM
- 466 views
Parametric Bootstrap Power Analysis of GISS Temp Data
by apeescape in mind of a Markov chain
Previosly, I calculated a bunch of ad-hoc power curves from GISTEMP data. Power is essentially a reframing of the p-value, to see the significance of the trend lines in the global temps. However, power calculations are inherently very noisy, hence, my ad-hoc way of aggregating the data. Another method is to bootstrap through the responses [...]... Read more »
Gerard, P., Smith, D., & Weerakkody, G. (1998) Limits of Retrospective Power Analysis. The Journal of Wildlife Management, 62(2), 801. DOI: 10.2307/3802357
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